The dynamics of job creation have undergone significant shifts in the post-war decades.
In this working paper by the U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research the authors examine characteristics of ‘new work’, where emerging jobs come from, and the effects on labour demand.
In the period from 1940 to 1980, most employment was in newly introduced specialties within middle-paid production and clerical occupations.
However, since 1980, the focus has shifted towards high-paid professional jobs and, to a lesser extent, low-paid services.
The research finds that new work emerges in response to technological innovations that complement outputs of occupations, in addition to demand shocks e.g. government policy or consumer preferences, which increase demand for occupations.
However, technological innovations are countervailing:
➡️ Augmentation innovations – which enhance the capabilities of workers, tend to boost labour demand.
➡️ Automation innovations – which allow machines to take over human tasks, tend to depress labour demand.
These effects were observed in both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors.
“Automation has intensified in middle-skill occupations while augmentation has concentrated in professional, technical, and managerial occupations and, to a lesser extent in personal service occupations.”
🔗 New Frontiers: The Origins and Content of New Work, 1940-2018. Autor et al 2022.
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